In December 2019, we asked the 2020 Titans of Tech awardees to gaze into their crystal ball, and give us their best guess for 2020. None of them saw COVID-19, wildfires, political turmoil, or economic downturn. But let’s take a look at what they got right vs wrong. Although there were 11 awardees, predictions and follow up was limited to the persons below. If you see “MIA”, it means that we are expecting a response in the near future.

Marc Randolph

Predictions: I predict that Disney+ will exceed its subscriber forecast, but then, surprisingly, so will Netflix.  Research will reveal that rather than the "streaming wars” being a competitive net-sum game, it’s actually encouraging more people to go over-the-top and increasing the size of the streaming pie for everyone.

Outcome: I wish I had put my money where my mouth was, since I blew away my 2020 predictions. Not only did Disney+ exceed it's 2020 forecast as I predicted, it also exceeded it's 2021 forecast. And it's 2022 forecasts. They had hoped they would get to 50 million by 2022; they ended this year with an astounding 73 million subscribers. Netflix and the rest of the streamers didn't do to badly either, with the entire streaming market growing by more than 35%. I was right: that pie definitely grew!

David Haussler

Predictions: I predict significant advances in DNA sequencing this year. Specifically, the Oxford Nanopore and Pacific Biosciences systems are improving rapidly, gaining new capabilities, and, separately, DNA forensics will actually start to realize the crime-solving capabilities depicted every night on TV.

Outcome: The predictions were borne out. Both PacBio and Oxford Nanopore made dramatic advances in DNA sequencing capability last year. PacBio brought to market the ability to sequence pieces of DNA tens of thousands of bases long with near 100% accuracy. Oxford Nanopore developed and released methods to sequence even longer pieces of DNA, up to 1 million bases (but not at as high an accuracy), and also gave us a critical glimpse into the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus as new mutations emerged, with their portable handheld sequencing platforms. Portable, handheld Oxford Nanopore platforms were used globally to sequence the genome of the virus in about different 50,000 cases. DNA has also continued to prove its value in criminal justice as well. The UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute's Prof. Ed Green provided the vital DNA analysis to solve a 38 year-old case of the abdunction, sexual abuse and murder of a 9-year old girl in Idaho. If Ed's new technology had been available earlier, an innocent man, Charles Fain, would not have spent 18 years of his life in prison on death row.

Jason Borgen

Predictions: Education technology is constantly shifting to provide more personalized, data-informed, and transformative learning experiences for students. In Santa Cruz, I believe we will see an increased linkage to our local workforce as we strive to build a bridge for computer science education to support student readiness for local careers and awareness around how technology affects our lives day-to-day (digital citizenship). Furthermore, with the Santa Cruz County Office of Education working with local partners and schools districts to build a robust Cradle to Career data system, our students will make sound and meaningful decisions toward career successes. Building data literacy will be essential for all school stakeholders in 2020!

Outcome: 2020 the year we all would like to forget! The educational landscape has changed dramatically over the past year. Although one of my predictions was about a steady increase in the use of personalized learning tools and educational technology, I never thought we would see a full transformation of 100% of educators and students moving to a distance learning and fully online instructional program maximizing the use of technology pushed by the Pandemic. Since March, the Santa Cruz County Office of Education has been working with every district in the county to assist in building mindsets, skillsets, and toolsets for effective online and hybrid learning. Albeit, many educators weren't necessarily ready for the change, they all moved forward with dignity and passion towards the continuity of education for ALL learners! See more about the Santa Cruz COE's Distance Learning Support - https://sccoe.link/coronavirus. Regarding partnerships, we have definitely moved forward as predicted to ensure all students have access to our local industry via a student and educator membership/partnership with Santa Cruz Works, we have also launched a full-scale Computer Science and Information Technology program in collaboration with Cabrillo, Cruzio, and Digital Nest. See more about the programs here: https://cs.santacruzcoe.org. Finally, we have just begun collecting demographic data of newborns via parental consent thanks to a partnership with First5 Santa Cruz's Baby Gateway program and Santa Cruz Community Ventures SEEDS program aligned to the cradle to career data system prediction. This will allow the Santa Cruz COE to obtain a State Student ID for children which is typically given once the child enters the public school systems. This will now allow the COE to manage student data sets where appropriate and handoff to the child's public school once the child enters the systems so that the schools can immediately provide programs aligned to the child's needs.

Aaron Huang

Predictions: Student entrepreneurship will continue to thrive across the nation. As more grants and venture funding begin to invest more towards technology-savvy college population, as well as an increasing establishment of university-based incubators/programs, I expect undergraduate/graduate students to lead innovation in 2020 and for years to come. 

Outcome: 2020 was an “off” year for many. With a raging pandemic, livelihoods of small business owners were decimated, and bigger companies’ goals deviated. However, with crisis come opportunities. I predicted at the beginning of 2020 that student entrepreneurship will continue to thrive, and more organizations will begin to rely on the ingenuity of college students. That was proven true by the GetVirtual program, which connected tech savvy college students looking for work experience, with small businesses looking for help transitioning to a digital market. Programs like this saw significant growth in 2020, proving the tremendous potential college talents bring to the economy.

Brad Barbeau

Predictions: At the end of 2019, it takes 10 years to become an overnight success. I predict that at the end of 2020, it will take 10 years to become an overnight success. The conclusion? Start your business now. That'll get you there one year earlier.

Outcome: Well, 2020 turned out to be an "interesting" year to start a business. A few got a huge boost (anybody starting a PPE business?); others ran into the brick wall that was COVID. And that 10 years it takes to become an overnight success? Maybe it became eleven years.

LeBaron Meyers

Predictions: In 2020, the status quo of updating company policies and requiring harassment trainings to address workplace misconduct will not be enough to satisfy, recruit and retain top talent. This will be seen as merely checking a compliance box for the protection of companies-- not employees. Employees will continue to speak up - more easily and more often through practical, powerful products like #NotMe - and require action over lip service. Proactive employers who shift their perspective to recognize reports from their employees as opportunities rather than liabilities will not only prevent massive (potentially public) downfalls, but also establish trust that exponentially begets success. Santa Cruz will lead the charge with multiple #NotMe employers already in place - and many more to come - evolving company culture and standards from an era of #MeToo to one of #NotMe.

Outcome: In some ways, my prediction underestimated what was to come in 2020. Like never before, companies are using their platforms and brand influence to speak about social issues like Black Lives Matter, publicly voicing their company values and pledging to do better and differently. Employees and clients are looking for real change and have less tolerance than ever for companies enabling misconduct, offering lip service and simply grandstanding. The companies that truly listen to their employees and walk the walk in making their culture more safe, diverse and inclusive for all - physically and psychologically - will outperform and outlast those that talk the talk but take no sustainable, impactful action. (Doubling down on my prediction.) As for local employers leading the charge in evolving company culture, Santa Cruz Seaside Company, the City of Santa Cruz and Smith & Vandiver have all subscribed to #NotMe, the easiest and safest way for employees to speak up at the first sign of misconduct. And we're in talks with many more to follow. (Another double-down.)

Iris Kavanagh

Predictions: 2020 will be the year the world (or at least the press) forgets about WeWork, even for just one moment. Tens of thousands of indie coworking operators across the globe are moving the future of work forward as they build strong coworking communities, one relationship at a time while employing sustainable business practices. These operators will form collaborative alliances, allowing them to develop economies of scale in their marketing and outreach efforts, yet remain true to their neighborhoods and unique brands. Think of a small city like Santa Cruz, which can support 4 shared workspaces within a 10 block radius of our downtown. Focusing on their unique offering allows these operators to serve the Santa Cruz community without a need to compete. Taking this to the next level, through collaborative marketing efforts, the four operators could increase market awareness of the benefits of coworking, thereby allowing all of the shared workspaces in the Santa Cruz area to benefit from the rising tide of people joining the collaborative workspace movement.

Outcome: The shared workspace industry was saved in 2020 by the large industry alliances we formed, almost overnight. We came together to share resources to stay in business, keep staff, pivot to virtual offerings and counsel each other through loss after loss. Today we are even stronger as an industry and movement and are positioned to be ready for the remote work revolution that is coming, once this pandemic recedes. I am especially proud of the role Santa Cruz played in this global effort with leadership by NextSpace, and two Santa Cruz based alliances, Women Who Cowork and the Coworking Content Alliance - founded by Santa Cruzan Cat Johnson.

Nina Simon

Predictions: I predict that "belonging" will become a top value in a world of forced migration, tribalism, and division. The organizations, businesses, and services that enable diverse people to feel a sense of belonging will win. Many will approach it superficially. But those who do it in a deep way will fundamentally change how people feel about their own safety, creativity, self-worth, and each other. 

Outcome: MIA